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July 25, 2022

Support for Abortion Rights Increased post-Dobbs

After the landmark Dobbs vs. Jackson (June, 2022) Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade (1973) and Planned Parenthood vs. Casey (1992), it is now up to the states to decide whether abortion is legal in their state. While the dust has not settled on the actions taken by each of the state legislatures, approximately half of the states already have or will enact laws restricting or altogether banning access to abortion, while the other half of the states will or have already enacted laws that ensure that access to abortion remains available.

We wondered whether people’s opinion on abortion had changed in the past month, now that the debate is no longer theoretical, but has real-life consequences in half the country.

ActiVote is in a unique position to answer that question, as we have asked over 22,000 registered voters since June 2019 the following question about Abortion:

Which of the followings statements best reflects your opinion about abortions?

  • They should be illegal in all cases.
  • They should be illegal, except in extreme circumstances.
  • They should be legal but only until the pregnancy reaches a certain duration (e.g. late in the pregnancy it should be illegal).
  • They should be legal in most circumstances, but some regulations surrounding the logistics and time-frame of the process (e.g. late-term regulations) should be allowed.
  • They should be legal in all cases.

The first two answers can be summarized as (almost) always illegal, the last two answers as (almost) always legal, while the middle answer includes positions like Roe v. Wade but also the Mississippi Law that was challenged under Dobbs, that allowed abortions up to 15 weeks, but made them illegal afterwards.

The crosstabs
2019
17%
23%
15%
23%
21%
2020
15%
27%
20%
18%
20%
2021
12%
27%
20%
19%
22%
2022
12%
28%
16%
20%
24%
Always illegalIllegal with exceptionsLegal early, illegal laterLegal with regulationsAlways legal
 See the details below →

At first glance, on a yearly basis, we see a small increase from 21% to 24% for the “always legal” position, while we see a decrease from 17% to 12% for the “always illegal” position. However, if we look at the combination of (almost) always legal it seems pretty steady at 44% and similarly (almost) always illegal seems pretty steady at 40% as well.

Thus, the often quoted statistic that 60% of the country favors abortion rights at least up to a point in the pregnancy (reflected in the 3 options in blue, light blue and grey) and 40% opposes (almost) all abortions is confirmed by our polling over the past few years.

However, if we zoom in on the last six months, we see a significant shift. In all the following graphs we will compare 1364 answers from Jan-Mar 2022 with 1387 answers we received in July 2022. All samples have been weighted to correctly reflect all registered voters.

The crosstabs
Q1 2022
14%
28%
17%
21%
20%
July 2022
9%
28%
16%
19%
28%
Always illegalIllegal with exceptionsLegal early, illegal laterLegal with regulationsAlways legal
 See the details below →

In the time since the Supreme Court released its Dobbs decision (June 24th, 2022), support for the always legal position has jumped from 20% in Q1 to 28% in July. Also, support for always illegal has been significantly reduced from 14% to just 9%. The question is now who the people are that are changing their minds.

The crosstabs
Men Q1
15%
37%
16%
15%
16%
Men July
30%
18%
22%
22%
Women Q1
12%
21%
18%
25%
24%
Women July
9%
26%
14%
17%
34%
Always illegalIllegal with exceptionsLegal early, illegal laterLegal with regulationsAlways legal
 See the details below →

The first significant observation is that men are getting more aligned with women. In Q1, 52% of men thought abortions should be (almost) always illegal, a percentage that had dropped to just 39% in July, bringing them much closer to women, of whom just 35% hold that opinion.

The crosstabs
Dem Q1
12%
20%
32%
34%
Dem July
12%
14%
25%
44%
Rep Q1
31%
44%
13%
Rep July
16%
51%
18%
Ind Q1
11%
36%
17%
17%
19%
Ind July
28%
16%
23%
26%
Always illegalIllegal with exceptionsLegal early, illegal laterLegal with regulationsAlways legal
 See the details below →

Support for legal abortion among Democrats did not change much, although there was a significant shift from “legal with regulations” to “always legal”. Only 17% of Democrats believe that abortion should be (almost) always illegal.

Republicans are reconsidering their stance on abortion as well: support for (almost) always illegal reduced from 75% to 67%. Of special note is the split between “illegal with exceptions” and “always illegal”. “Illegal with exceptions” is with 51% now the majority position among Republicans, while “always illegal” dropped from a significant 31% to a more fringe position of 16%.

The biggest change was seen among Independents, where support for (almost) always illegal dropped from 47% to 35%, making them somewhat more aligned with the Democratic than the Republican position.

Despite the meaningful change towards more support for abortion rights, the overarching picture remains that the country is deeply divided on the topic, with a signficant majority of Republicans (67% in July) believing that it should be (almost) always illegal, while an increasing majority of Democrats (83%) oppose that position. Thus, it is to be expected that in red states restrictive laws will continue to be enacted post-Roe, while in blue states pro-choice laws will be enacted.

Abortion rights supporters can take away from this poll that there are meaningful movements in two groups of people: men are aligning their views more with women, and independents have moved more than any other group towards supporting at least some abortion rights, which could have an impact on upcoming elections, if abortion were on the ballot.

Finally, there seems to be a near-universal rejection, even among 80%+ Republicans, of making abortion always illegal and not allowing for any exceptions. Therefore, it would not be surprising if laws which have banned abortion under all circumstances, will be short-lived, as they are not supported by any significant constituency.

Want to add your voice to our poll? We’d love to hear your thoughts on the Abortion Debate as well as State Laws on Abortion, Planned Parenthood and the Hyde Amendment.

See here for details on how ActiVote conducts its polls.

The Details

We also asked this question once before:

What voters said

Percentages over all 5 choices · 1,387 registered voters · MoE ±2.6%

Always illegal
9%
Illegal with exceptions
28%
Legal early, illegal later
16%
Legal with regulations
19%
Always legal
28%

The full crosstab table

ActiVote · Abortion · July 25, 2022
ActiVote 1,387 RV Always illegal Illegal with exceptions Legal early, illegal later Legal with regulations Always legal
National ±2.6% MoE 9% 28% 16% 19% 28%
Year 2019 17% 23% 15% 23% 21%
2020 15% 27% 20% 18% 20%
2021 12% 27% 20% 19% 22%
2022 12% 28% 16% 20% 24%
Period Q1 2022 14% 28% 17% 21% 20%
July 2022 9% 28% 16% 19% 28%
Gender Men Q1 15% 37% 16% 15% 16%
Men July 9% 30% 18% 22% 22%
Women Q1 12% 21% 18% 25% 24%
Women July 9% 26% 14% 17% 34%
Affiliation Dem Q1 2% 12% 20% 32% 34%
Dem July 5% 12% 14% 25% 44%
Rep Q1 31% 44% 13% 8% 4%
Rep July 16% 51% 18% 8% 7%
Ind Q1 11% 36% 17% 17% 19%
Ind July 7% 28% 16% 23% 26%
Methodology. Fielded July 2022, compared with Q1 2022 (N=1,364) and yearly windows since 2019 among 1,387 registered voters nationwide. Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±2.6%. No post-Dobbs workbook survives (the archived Abortion workbook predates the Dobbs decision). All values were transcribed from the charts as published in July 2022; the headline shows the July 2022 sample, and each breakdown pairs the pre-Dobbs Q1 2022 sample with the post-Dobbs July 2022 sample. See Why trust our polls? for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.