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November 2, 2020

Electoral College

Over 150 million people will have cast their vote by the evening of November 3rd. For the next frantic hours (or days or weeks) the nation will talk about the Electoral College: the 538 people who ultimately determine on December 14th, 2020 who becomes our next President.

Twice in the last five elections the ultimate winner of the presidency has not be the same person who won the popular vote. If that happens again, there will be passionate discussions about whether electing the President through the Electoral College should remain as it is today.

ActiVote conducted a survey to determine what our users thought about the Electoral College and whether any action is needed and if so what. We provided five options to choose from, which can be summarized as follows:

  • Small states should get more representation than they have now.
  • Keep the Electoral College as it is today
  • We should encourage states to award their electoral votes proportional to the popular vote in their state, instead of winner takes all.
  • We should move to a popular vote election through the national popular vote interstate compact.
  • We should amend the constitution to elect the president through the popular vote.
The headline result
smaller states should have more representation
6%
keep as is
23%
award electoral votes proportionaly per state
25%
popular vote through Interstate Compact
5%
popular vote through constitutional amendment
41%
 See the details below →

Only a minority (of 46%) is for changing to popular vote elections, while 1 in 4 would like to award electoral votes proportionally. Also, about 1 in 4 is happy with the system as it is. Giving smaller states more representation does not have significant support.

The crosstabs
High school
24%
27%
35%
Some college
22%
27%
40%
Bachelor's
23%
21%
50%
smaller states should have more representationkeep as isaward electoral votes proportionaly per statepopular vote through Interstate Compactpopular vote through constitutional amendment
 See the details below →

Moving to a popular vote is slightly more popular with those with a higher education.

The crosstabs
Dem
23%
60%
Rep
12%
45%
23%
17%
Ind
10%
25%
56%
smaller states should have more representationkeep as isaward electoral votes proportionaly per statepopular vote through Interstate Compactpopular vote through constitutional amendment
 See the details below →

There is a significant partisan divide, where over 60% of Democrats and Independents support a national popular vote, and only 15% would like to keep the current system (or make it more attractive for small states). Republicans on the other hand, support in majority (57%) the status quo or giving small states more representation.

This partisan divide could be related to the fact that the last two Republican presidents won their (first) election while losing the popular vote: clearly Democrats would like to change the rules that aren’t working for them, while Republicans would like to keep what is working for them.

As long as the popular vote gives more favorable results for one party, it is unlikely that eliminating the Electoral College will happen anytime soon. This might be a good reason to look more closely at the compromise of awarding electoral votes proportionally per state, which has the support of 1 in 4 voters of every category, despite the fact that it is a relatively unknown solution.

The Details

The answers as asked

Charts and tables use the short label at the start of each line.

  1. smaller states should have more representation: We should work to give smaller states more representation, not less.
  2. keep as is: The current system should remain in place as that is how the founders intended it.
  3. award electoral votes proportionaly per state: We should encourage each state to adopt a proportional allocation of electoral votes instead of winner takes all. It makes every vote counts, but still ensures that smaller states keep a relative advantage to avoid them being marginalized.
  4. popular vote through Interstate Compact: We should help sign up more states to the NPVIC so that we can elect the President using the Popular Vote, with one person, one vote.
  5. popular vote through constitutional amendment: We should pass a Constitutional Amendment that ensures that the President is elected using the Popular Vote, with one person, one vote.

The full crosstab table

ActiVote · Electoral College · November 2, 2020
ActiVote 1333 RV smaller states should have more representation keep as is award electoral votes proportionaly per state popular vote through Interstate Compact popular vote through constitutional amendment
National ±2.7% MoE 6% 23% 25% 5% 41%
Gender Men 8% 26% 22% 6% 38%
Women 4% 19% 28% 3% 45%
Age 18-29 7% 13% 38% 2% 40%
30-49 4% 21% 19% 8% 48%
50-64 10% 33% 20% 4% 33%
65+ 5% 27% 23% 4% 41%
Ethnicity White 5% 32% 28% 3% 33%
Black 2% 8% 23% 13% 53%
Latino 7% 20% 35% 0% 37%
Education High school 9% 24% 27% 6% 35%
Some college 7% 22% 27% 5% 40%
Bachelor's 3% 23% 21% 3% 50%
Income <50k 9% 21% 24% 2% 44%
50k-100k 5% 21% 30% 7% 37%
>100k 6% 26% 20% 4% 44%
Affiliation Dem 4% 9% 23% 5% 60%
Rep 12% 45% 23% 3% 17%
Ind 6% 10% 25% 3% 56%
Region Dark Red 9% 25% 26% 3% 36%
Light Red 9% 27% 16% 14% 34%
Swing 7% 26% 28% 2% 36%
Light Blue 4% 20% 33% 1% 42%
Dark Blue 3% 18% 21% 5% 54%
Methodology. Fielded November 2020 among 1333 registered voters nationwide. Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±2.7%. See Why trust our polls? for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.