Kehoe has Large Lead in Missouri

ActiVote’s October 2, 2024 Missouri Governor poll shows that Republican Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe leads against his Democratic challenger State Representative Crystal Quade by 19.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 3, 2024 and October 1, 2024 with a median field date of September 17. 

Please note that in this poll the threshold of 5% for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.

Quade leads among urban voters, young voters (18-49) and Democrats. Kehoe leads among all other groups. 

Please note that Missouri does not register voters by party affiliation so that the inferred party affiliation from the voter file is much less accurate than in some other states, explaining why both candidates lose over ⅓ of those estimated to be affiliated with their party. These crosstab elements are therefore best ignored in this poll.

Political Spectrum

The following graph and table show the support for Quade and Kehoe among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Missouri, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.

Quade gets 92% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Kehoe gets 94% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Kehoe also has a 30% lead among the centrists. Kehoe’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Missouri.

Comparisons

In 2020, incumbent Republican Governor Mike Parson beat his Democratic opponent State Auditor Nicole Galloway by 16.4%. In 2016, Republican Eric Greitens beat his Democratic opponent Chris Koster by 5.6%.

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