ActiVote Poll – September 12th, 2020
ActiVote conducted a national, presidential election poll among 1179 registered voters over the past 4 weeks. The result is weighted to represent the national electorate on characteristics such as region, gender, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, education, income, and likelihood to vote.
By nature of our poll there are no undecideds among our survey responses (so all categories sum to 100%) and we only focus on the head-to-head competition between the Democratic candidate (former Vice President Joe Biden) and the Republican candidate (current President Donald Trump).
For information on how we conducted this poll, and on our current estimate of up to a 5% liberal bias in our results, please see our answers to the CNN Transparency questionnaire for polling standards
Overall, former Vice President Biden leads President Trump by 14 points:
We find that 1 in 6 Republicans and 1 in 20 Democrats intend to vote for the other party’s candidate. Independents lean Biden by a significant margin while alternative party candidates (e.g. Libertarians) favor Trump over Biden.
We found a gender gap of 10%, with more women preferring Biden. Still, Biden leads among both men and women.
Trump is ahead by 4 points among the 50-64 age group, but is 10% behind among the elderly. Biden gets almost 3 out of every 4 votes from the youngest voters (18-29).
The racial divide is enormous, where the vast majority of all minorities support Biden. Trump has a 6 point lead among White voters.
Our educational findings are that Biden is slightly more ahead among those with an intermediate level of education.
While Biden led the “intermediate” education levels, Trump does best with those with “intermediate” income levels. Biden does better with those with lower incomes and with those with high incomes.
Trump leads by 20 points in the dark red states (AL, AR, ID, KS, LA, ND, NE, OK, SC, WV, WY) and 14 points in the light red states (AK, KY, IN, MS, MT, TN and UT) worth a total of 116 electoral votes. Biden leads by 22 points in the light blue states (CO, DE, IL, ME, NM, OR, RI and VA) and by 40 points in the deep blue states (CA, CT, DC, HI, MA, MD, NJ, NY, VT and WA) worth a total of 213 electoral votes. In the swing states (FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, TX and WI) which are the remaining 209 electoral votes, Biden is 6 points up on average.
Below are links to our previous installments of our weekly presidential poll.ActiVote Presidential Poll September 5th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll August 15th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll July 11th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll July 4th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 27th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 20th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 6th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll May 30th, 2020