ActiVote Poll – October 3rd, 2020
ActiVote conducted a national, presidential election poll among 1996 registered voters over the past 4 weeks. The result is weighted to represent the national electorate on characteristics such as region, gender, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, education, income, and likelihood to vote.
By nature of our poll there are no undecideds among our survey responses (so all categories sum to 100%) and we only focus on the head-to-head competition between the Democratic candidate (former Vice President Joe Biden) and the Republican candidate (current President Donald Trump) as the Libertarian candidate (Jo Jorgensen) and the Green candidate (Howie Hawkins) are nationally polling in the (low) single digits.
In the live poll in our app, all four candidates are included, but for our weekly poll analysis we only include those candidates who poll at 15% or more (the threshold set for participation in the Presidential debates by the Commission on Presidential Debates).
For information on how we conducted this poll, and on our current estimate of an approximate 5% liberal bias in our results, please see our answers to the CNN Transparency questionnaire for polling standards
Overall, former Vice President Biden leads President Trump by 20 points:
We find that 1 in 4 Republicans and 1 in 14 Democrats intend to vote for the other party’s candidate. Independents lean Biden 2:1. Even among 3rd party registrants (e.g. Libertarians, Greens) Biden leads Trump.
We found a gender gap of 10%, with more women preferring Biden. Still, Biden leads among both men and women.
Trump is trailing by 4 points among the 50-64 age group, the group he does best with. He is 18% behind with the elderly, while Biden gets about 2 out of every 3 votes from the younger voters (18-49).
The racial divide is enormous, where the vast majority of all minorities support Biden. Biden also has a lead of 8 points among White voters.
Our educational findings are that, somewhat surprisingly, all educational groups support Biden by significant margins ranging from 16% to 22%.
We see that Biden leads in all income category, but more strongly among those with higher incomes.
Trump leads by 14 points in the dark red states (AL, AR, ID, KS, LA, ND, NE, OK, SC, WV, WY) and 12 points in the light red states (AK, KY, IN, MS, MT, TN and UT) worth a total of 116 electoral votes. Biden leads by 36 points in the light blue states (CO, DE, IL, ME, NM, OR, RI and VA) and by 40 points in the deep blue states (CA, CT, DC, HI, MA, MD, NJ, NY, VT and WA) worth a total of 213 electoral votes. In the swing states (FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, TX and WI) which are the remaining 209 electoral votes, Biden is 12 points up on average.
Below are links to our previous installments of our weekly presidential poll.ActiVote Presidential Poll September 26th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll September 19th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll September 12th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll September 5th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll August 15th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll July 11th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll July 4th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 27th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 20th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 6th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll May 30th, 2020