ActiVote Poll – October 24th, 2020
ActiVote conducted a national, presidential election poll among 3697 registered voters over the past 4 weeks. The result is weighted to represent the national electorate on characteristics such as region, gender, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, education, income, and likelihood to vote.
By nature of our poll there are no undecideds among our survey responses (so all categories sum to 100%) and we only focus on the head-to-head competition between the Democratic candidate (former Vice President Joe Biden) and the Republican candidate (current President Donald Trump) as the Libertarian candidate (Jo Jorgensen) and the Green candidate (Howie Hawkins) are nationally polling in the (low) single digits.
In the live poll in our app, all four candidates are included, but for our weekly poll analysis we only include those candidates who poll at 15% or more (the threshold set for participation in the Presidential debates by the Commission on Presidential Debates).
For information on how we conducted this poll, and on our current estimate of an approximate 5% liberal bias in our results, please see our answers to the CNN Transparency questionnaire for polling standards
Overall, former Vice President Biden leads President Trump by 10 points:
We find that 1 in 6 Republicans and 1 in 9 Democrats intend to vote for the other party’s candidate. Independents lean 3:2 Biden. Among 3rd party registrants (e.g. Libertarians, Greens) Trump leads by 12 points.
We found a gender gap of 14%, with more women preferring Biden. Still, Biden also narrowly leads among men.
Biden leads by 36 points among the youngest voters and about 16 points among those aged 30-49. The 50-64 age leans Biden by 4 points, while Trump leads by 6 points among the elderly (65+).
The racial divide is enormous, where the vast majority of all minorities support Biden, while Trump leads by 6 points among White voters.
Our educational findings are that, Biden and Trump are evenly matched among those with highschool or less, and with at least a Bachelor’s degree.. Among all those with some college, Biden has a 18% margin.
We see that Biden leads in all income categories with only small variations in the level of support per category.
Trump leads by only 6 points in the dark red states (AL, AR, ID, KS, LA, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, WV, WY), which seems an outlier in our poll. He also leads by 18 points in the light red states (AK, KY, IN, MS, MT, TN and UT). Together these are worth a total of 116 electoral votes. Biden leads by 12 points in the light blue states (CO, DE, IL, ME, NM, OR, RI and VA) and by 26 points in the deep blue states (CA, CT, DC, HI, MA, MD, NJ, NY, VT and WA) worth a total of 213 electoral votes. In the swing states (AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, TX and WI) which are the remaining 209 electoral votes, Biden is 6 points up on average.
Below are links to our previous installments of our weekly presidential poll.ActiVote Presidential Poll October 17th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll October 10th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll October 3rd, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll September 26th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll September 19th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll September 12th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll September 5th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll August 15th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll July 11th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll July 4th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 27th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 20th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll June 6th, 2020ActiVote Presidential Poll May 30th, 2020