ActiVote Polling October 10th, 2020

ActiVote Poll – October 10th, 2020

ActiVote conducted a national, presidential election poll among 2384 registered voters over the past 4 weeks. The result is weighted to represent the national electorate on characteristics such as region, gender, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, education, income, and likelihood to vote.

By nature of our poll there are no undecideds among our survey responses (so all categories sum to 100%) and we only focus on the head-to-head competition between the Democratic candidate (former Vice President Joe Biden) and the Republican candidate (current President Donald Trump) as the Libertarian candidate (Jo Jorgensen) and the Green candidate (Howie Hawkins) are nationally polling in the (low) single digits.

In the live poll in our app, all four candidates are included, but for our weekly poll analysis we only include those candidates who poll at 15% or more (the threshold set for participation in the Presidential debates by the Commission on Presidential Debates).

For information on how we conducted this poll, and on our current estimate of an approximate 5% liberal bias in our results, please see our answers to the CNN Transparency questionnaire for polling standards

Overall, former Vice President Biden leads President Trump by 18 points:

We find that 1 in 4 Republicans and 1 in 14 Democrats intend to vote for the other party’s candidate. Independents lean Biden 2:1. Even among 3rd party registrants (e.g. Libertarians, Greens) Biden leads Trump.

We found a gender gap of 18%, with more women preferring Biden. Still, Biden leads among both men and women.

Trump is trailing by 6 points among the 50-64 age group, the group he does best with. He is 8% behind with the elderly, while Biden gets about 2 out of every 3 votes from the younger voters (18-49).

The racial divide is enormous, where the vast majority of all minorities support Biden. Biden also has a lead of 6 points among White voters.

Our educational findings are that, Biden’s margin is the smallest among those with less education: 6%. Among all those with at least some college, Biden has a 20% margin.