ActiVote Poll – June 20th, 2020

ActiVote conducted a national, presidential election poll among 541 registered voters during the past 4 weeks. The result is weighted to represent the national electorate on characteristics such as region, gender, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, education, income, and likelihood to vote.

By nature of our poll there are no undecideds among our survey responses (so all categories sum to 100%) and we only focus on the head-to-head competition between the presumptive Democratic candidate (former Vice President Joe Biden) and the presumptive Republican candidate (current President Donald Trump).

For information on how we conducted this poll, and our current estimate of a 5% liberal bias in our results, please see our answers to the CNN Transparency questionnaire for polling standards

Overall, former Vice President Biden leads President Trump by 18 points: 

Most voters vote their party, but Democrats are slightly more united than Republicans at this time. We find that independents support Biden almost as much as Democrats do. Among the 3rd party voters (e.g. Libertarians), Trump has a 10-point lead.

We found a gender gap of 30%, with women having a 2:1 preference for Biden, while men are evenly divided between Biden and Trump.

Young voters overwhelmingly prefer Biden (62% gap), while those 30-49 prefer Biden 2:1. Only the 50-64 age category prefers Trump by 12 points, while the elderly prefer Biden by almost that same margin.

The racial divide is enormous although Biden now leads among all ethnicities. White voters are most closely divided with Biden at a 4% lead. Black voters are almost unanimously for Biden, while he also leads by large margins among Latino and Asian voters.

The educational divide is significant. Those with less education narrowly prefer Trump, while those with the highest education narrowly prefer Biden. It is the middle group who favor Biden by 2:1.

In the lower two income categories, Biden leads by approximately 7%. His lead among the highest earners is more significant.

Below are links to our previous installments of our weekly presidential poll.

ActiVote Presidential Poll June 6th, 2020

ActiVote Presidential Poll May 30th, 2020